INSIDE THE LINES
SUNDAY, MAY 10
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at (5) Houston (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
After regaining home-court advantage with a Game 3 victory on Friday, the Lakers look to take a commanding 3-1 lead when they take on the Rockets in Game 4 of their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series inside the Toyota Center in Houston.
Kobe Bryant scored 33 points to lead Los Angeles to a 108-94 win in the pivotal Game 3 on Friday, with the Lakers covering as 1½-point road favorites. All five L.A. starters scored in double digits with forward Lamar Odom going for 16 points and 13 rebounds. The Lakers were outrebounded 56-43, but had just six turnovers compared with 17 for Houston.
Ron Artest had another strong offensive showing for the Rockets, going for 25 points before being ejected late in the fourth quarter for a questionable flagrant foul. Yao Ming added 19 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in what turned out to be his final game of the season, as he broke his foot in the fourth quarter of Game 3 and will miss the remainder of the postseason. Over the past two seasons, the Rockets are 19-8 SU without Ming, including 3-2 during the regular season this year.
The Lakers are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games (9-7 ATS) while the Rockets have won 10 of their last 15 (8-7 ATS). Despite the loss in Game 3, Houston is still 36-9 SU at home this season, including 3-1 (1-3 ATS) in home playoff games. Los Angeles is 31-13 SU on the road (25-19 ATS), including 2-1 SU and ATS in postseason games on the highway.
Including this playoff series, the Lakers are 6-1 SU and ATS against the Rockets this season, including 3-0 SU and ATS in Houston. Los Angeles is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings with the Rockets overall and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 visits to Houston. Finally, the chalk is on a 6-2 ATS run in this series.
Phil Jackson’s squad is on ATS slides of 1-4 following a straight-up win and 2-5 on Sundays, but it is on positive ATS runs of 7-3 after getting one day off, 9-3-1 in conference semifinal playoff action and 4-1 against Southwest Division foes. Rick Adelman’s Rockets are on ATS slumps of 4-11 against the Pacific Division, 7-17 as a home ‘dog, 1-5 after getting a day off and 2-6 after a double-digit home loss, but they are on positive ATS runs of 6-3 at home, 20-7 following a non-cover and 5-2 on Sundays.
Game 1 in this series stayed under the total, but the last two have soared over the posted price Additionally, Los Angeles has topped the total in six of seven after a spread-cover and five of its last six conference semifinal games, but it is on “under” runs of 8-2 as a road favorite, 7-1-1 on Sundays, 8-3 on the road and 20-9 as a favorite. The Rockets have gone over the total in five of seven playoff games as underdogs, but otherwise it’s all “unders” for Houston, including 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-1 on Sundays, 15-6 after a non-cover, 7-3 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 against Western Conference teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Boston (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) at (3) Orlando (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)
The Magic look to take a commanding 3-1 lead against the defending NBA champion Celtics when the two square off inside Amway Arena in Game 4 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series.
Orlando shot 59.1 percent from the floor on Friday night en route to clobbering Boston 117-96 as a five-point home favorite. Forwards Rashard Lewis (28 points) and Hedo Turkoglu (24 points) led the way for the Magic, while superstar center Dwight Howard got his usual double-double with 17 points and 14 rebounds. The Magic, without the services of point guard Rafer Alston, who was suspended after a flagrant foul in Game 2, got 13 points from backup point guard Anthony Johnson and 11 from Courtney Lee.
After scoring just six points in Boston’s easy Game 2 victory, Celtics star Paul Pierce produced 27 points in the Game 3 defeat. However, fellow star Ray Allen managed just eight points on 3 of 13 shooting on Friday.
Orlando has now won five of its last six (4-2 ATS) and seven of its last 10 (5-5 ATS), plus it has won three of four at home during these playoffs (2-2 ATS). On the opposite side, Boston has alternated wins and losses in its last eight outings (4-3-1 ATS), but it’s just 1-3 SU (2-1-1 ATS) on the road in the postseason.
Orlando has won four of the last five meetings with the Celtics (3-2 ATS). Furthermore, the host is 10-3 SU in the last 13 clashes and 23-10 ATS in the past 33.
The Celtics are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference semifinal games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six on Sundays, but otherwise Doc Rivers’ squad is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2-1 on the road, 8-1 after a non-cover, 44-18-1 as road underdogs, 7-1-1 as a playoff pup and 20-7 as a road ‘dog of between five and 10 ½ points.
The Magic are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when laying points and 2-5 ATS in their last seven as playoff favorites, but they are on a host of positive pointspread streaks that include 4-1 overall, 6-2 on Sundays, 4-1 against the Atlantic Division and 17-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Boston is riding “over” streaks of 23-9 overall, 4-1 on the road, 38-18 against the Eastern Conference, 13-3 after a straight-up loss, 7-1 after getting one day off and 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog. Conversely, Orlando is on a plethora of “under” runs that include 18-8 overall, 10-4 at home, 11-5 against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 as a playoff favorite and 52-25-1 as a home chalk of between five and 10½ points.
Finally, the last two games in this series have soared over the posted total, but the under remains 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings and 6-2 in the last eight series matchups in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago (16-14) at Milwaukee (18-13)
The Brewers look to complete a three-game series sweep of the rival Cubs when they send Jeff Suppan (2-2, 5.68 ERA) to the mound against Chicago’s Sean Marshall (0-2, 4.15) at Miller Park.
After scoring a come-from-behind 3-2 win on Friday, Milwaukee pounded out a 12-6 victory over the Cubs on Saturday. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 13 and 14 of their last 17 overall. Additionally, they’re on runs of 8-2 at home, 8-1 against N.L. Central rivals, 36-17 as a favorite (9-2 last 11 as a chalk) and 4-0 against lefty starters.
Although they’ve dropped the first two games of this series, the Cubs are still 6-3 in their last nine games, a run that comes on the heels of a 2-7 slump. Chicago is also 21-8 in its last 29 Sunday contests, but Lou Pineilla’s club has now lost seven straight contests as an underdog.
These teams have met five times this season – all in Milwaukee – with the Brewers holding a slim 3-2 advantage. Still, the Cubs are 9-6 in the last 15 battles overall and 8-5 in their last 13 at Miller Park.
Marshall followed up consecutive quality starts against the Cardinals and Marlins with a poor effort Tuesday against the Giants, allowing five runs in seven innings of a 6-2 home loss. Chicago is winless in Marshall’s last eight trips to the mound and they’re also 4-17 in his last 21 starts overall, 0-4 in his last four on the road, 1-5 in his last six against N.L. Central foes and 1-5 in his last six on Sunday.
Marshall’s lone road start this season came at St. Luis, and he gave up three runs in six innings, but lost 8-2. He’s also 1-2 with a 9.53 ERA in nine lifetime appearances (two starts) against the Brewers.
Suppan has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, dropping his ERA from 12.81 to 5.68. He beat the Pirates 8-5 in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, giving up three runs in 5 2/3 innings. With Suppan on the bump, the Brewers are on runs of 4-0 overall, 7-2 when favored and 24-9 against division rivals, but they’ve lost five of his last six Sunday efforts.
Suppan is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts at home, with the loss coming to the Cubs on April 12 when he lasted just 3 2/3 innings, yielding five runs on two hits and six walks in an 8-5 setback. He’s now 6-7 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 career starts against Chicago, including 1-2 with a 10.22 ERA in the last three.
The over is 4-0-1 in Marshall’s last five starts overall, but the under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 on the highway and 6-1-1 in his last eight against the N.L. Central. The under is also 4-1-1 in Suppan’s last six starts at Miller Park.
For Chicago, the “over” is on streaks of 10-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 on the road, 12-5-1 as an underdog, 8-2 against right-handed starters and 9-4-2 against divisional rivals. The over is also 5-1 in Milwaukee’s last six overall and 7-2 in its last nine against N.L. Central foes. Lastly, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 13-5-2 overall and 15-5-2 at Miller Park
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (15-17) at Boston (19-12)
Josh Beckett (3-2, 6.75) faces the Rays for the third time this season while Matt Garza (3-2, 3.51) does the same against the Red Sox as these division rivals clash in the rubber match of a three-game series at Fenway Park.
Tampa Bay pounded out a 14-5 victory on Saturday at Fenway after dropping Friday’s series opener 7-3. The Rays have followed up a 4-11 slump by going 7-3 in their last 10. They’ve also won seven of their last 10 against the A.L. East and six of their last seven as an underdog.
Boston had a modest two-game winning streak snapped yesterday, but remains on impressive streaks of 17-6 overall, 76-33 at Fenway Park, 11-4 against division rivals, 12-5 against right-handed starters, 14-4 as a favorite and 16-3 when playing on grass.
The Rays lead the season series 6-3, winning three of the last four in Beantown. However, they’re still just 16-49 in their last 65 games at Fenway Park (playoffs included).
Garza limited Baltimore to three runs (two earned) over eight innings on Tuesday, winning 6-3 at home. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in Garza’s last seven starts against divisional foes and 4-0 in his last four as an underdog, but they’ve lost six of his last eight on the highway and four of his last five Sunday starts.
The Rays are unbeaten in Garza’s last six starts against the Red Sox (playoffs included). That includes a 4-3 win at Boston on April 9 and a 13-0 rout at home on April 30. In those two contests, Garza surrendered a total of one run, five hits and four walks while striking out 15 over 14 2/3 innings. Over his last four starts versus the Red Sox (two in the playoffs), Garza is 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA.
After two straight dreadful outings (15 earned runs allowed in 9 2/3 innings), Beckett settled down on Tuesday at new Yankee Stadium, yielding three runs in six innings of a 7-3 victory. Still, the veteran right-hander has given up 10 hits in each of his last three trips to the hill, going 1-1 with a 10.34 ERA. That includes the 13-0 loss to Garza and the Rays on April 30, when Beckett gave up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings. With that poor performance, the veteran right-hander dropped to 7-5 with a 4.21 ERA in 14 career starters (including playoffs) against Tampa Bay.
At home this year, Beckett is 2-0 with a 6.00 ERA in three starts, with Boston willing all three games, including a 5-3 victory over the Rays on Opening Day this season. In fact, despite Beckett’s recent struggles, the Red Sox have still won five of his last seven starts dating to last year’s playoffs and they’re 5-2 in his last seven starts against Tampa Bay at Fenway.
For Tampa Bay, the “under” is on stretches of 11-5 as an underdog, 4-1-1 when Garza pitches on the highway and 4-1 in Garza works on Sunday, but the over is 35-17-2 in the team’s last 54 contests against right-handed starters. The Red Sox “over” trends of 20-7-3 overall (8-2-2 last 12), 7-2-1 at home, 12-3-2 against losing teams, 7-2-2 against right-handed starters and 5-0 with Becket on the mound. However, the under is 9-1-1 in Boston’s last 11 Sunday contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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